Apple is turning to Intel for custom chips in a move that bolsters U.S. efforts to rebuild domestic semiconductor production, but analysts warn that advanced chips are still 2–3 years away from volume output — if they materialize at all. The deal, announced by President Trump last week, pairs Apple’s need for more manufacturing capacity amid TSMC constraints with Intel’s push to revive its foundry business, starting potentially with lower-end components for Macs and iPads.
Zaheer Kachwala for Reuters:
Analysts say any advanced Intel chip will take two to three years to make and even longer to translate into gains due to the long and exacting production process.
A deal – which neither company has formally announced – would pair Intel’s effort to rebuild its credibility as a contract chipmaker with Apple’s search for more manufacturing capacity, as its supplier TSMC struggles to meet surging AI chip demand from the likes of Nvidia.
Supply constraints at the contract manufacturer have held back iPhone sales, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in April.
Baked into this deal is a strategic calculation. Intel has emerged as a key pillar in the U.S. plan to rebuild domestic chipmaking through tariffs and incentives, thanks to its 10% stake in the company and a $5 billion investment from Nvidia at the behest of President Donald Trump.
“The absolute best possible case would be 2-3 years before the first chips flowed off the line. It takes 2 years to design an SoC (system on chip) of this complexity, and a further 4 months through production cycle time to volume ramp up,” said Malcolm Penn, CEO of chip research firm Future Horizons.
This assessment assumes Intel’s technology is fully worked out and its design tools are reliable enough for Apple to depend on, Penn said. “With no track record, that’s a huge leap of faith and commercial and financial risk,” said Penn, who termed the deal “a shotgun wedding”.
“Apple would probably want to use Intel’s 14A process technology… and that’s expected to be available in 2028 or 2029 so it’s still going to be a while,” said Bob O’Donnell, an analyst at TECHnalysis Research.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple could use Intel’s existing 18A-P or older, proven nodes (Intel 3) for less cutting-edge Apple Silicon SoCs that are already designed and get started sooner. Apple could then diversify away from TSMC capacity constraints without the full risk of Intel’s newest, unproven processes for high-volume or premium chips. Choosing this route, production would likely then start in 2027 for meaningful volume.
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