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Early signs point to stronger demand for Apple’s new iPhone lineup – Morgan Stanley

MacDailyNews

Sep 17

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Apple’s new iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that initial indicators suggest stronger demand for Apple’s iPhone 17 compared to the iPhone 16 launch last year, driven by extended lead times and enhanced supply availability.

“iPhone 17 lead times are tracking in-line to higher Y/Y, but early iPhone supply is better Y/Y, meaning early iPhone 17 demand is likely up Y/Y (vs. flat FY26 shipment ests),” Morgan Stanley wrote.

Sam Boughedda for Yahoo Finance:
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According to the analysts, “our iPhone 17 lead time analysis suggests that early demand for the iPhone 17 models is stronger than at the onset of the iPhone 16 cycle last year, a positive early indication that iPhone replacement cycles could be stabilizing and upgrade rates could be improving Y/Y.”
As of Sept. 16, four days after pre-orders began, “the average iPhone 17 (incl Air) lead time in the US is ~15 days, up 7 days vs. last Friday when pre-orders started, and up 0.3 days (or 2%) vs. the same point in the iPhone 16 cycle last year,” Morgan Stanley said.
International markets are said to be showing an even stronger trend, with average lead times extending 3 days week-on-week and 3 days year-on-year in China, Japan, the U.K., France, and Germany.
The firm also highlighted better production this cycle. “Early iPhone 17 supply is more sufficient than last year, a testament to better Y/Y production yields and higher productivity in India, where Apple is building/shipping all new model iPhones at launch for the first time in history,” the analysts noted.

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MacDailyNews Take: Again, regardless of whether the conclusion is positive or negative, there’s not enough hard data:

You cannot measure demand based on shipping times without knowing how much supply Apple has in hand… and where and how those supplies are allocated in each geographic area. – MacDailyNews, September 17, 2024

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