Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more IDC forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to grow 0.6% year-over-year in 2025 MacDailyNews May 29   READ IN APP   Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending. Growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones. Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year. China is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android. In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline. “The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “Further negative impact was prevented by the unique structure of the US smartphone market, where majority of devices are bought through carriers which help fuel demand by offering robust trade in deals and interest free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.” “Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariffs hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.” ‎ MacDailyNews Take: if only we had a nickel for every IDC forecast that failed to materialize. SEE ALSO: Apple exposes IDC’s and Gartner’s flawed Mac unit sales estimates – November 3, 2017 IDC and Gartner numbers do not jibe with Apple’s double digit U.S. Mac growth – July 27, 2014 Exposing IDC’s, Gartner’s, and Strategy Analytics’ PC, phone and tablet data on Apple – November 16, 2013 Gartner and IDC trumpet wildly incongruous Mac unit sales estimates – April 11, 2013 ‎ Please help support MacDailyNews — and enjoy subscriber-only articles, comments, chat, and more — by subscribing to our Substack: macdailynews.substack.com. Thank you! Support MacDailyNews at no extra cost to you by using this link to shop at Amazon. [Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.] The post IDC forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to grow 0.6% year-over-year in 2025 appeared first on MacDailyNews. You're currently a free subscriber to MacDailyNews. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2025 MacDailyNews 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe