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KeyBanc reiterates $200 price target on Apple

MacDailyNews

Jan 14

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KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel reiterated his ‘underweight’ rating and $200 price target on Apple in a note to clients on Tuesday, argues that while earnings are likely to meet Wall Street forecasts, the company’s guidance may disappoint.

Martin Baccardax  for TheStreet:
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“We think the data overall appears mixed where Apple is tracking below historical seasonality, though the y/y growth is improving off last year’s weak results,” Nispel said. “Overall, our data tells us we should expect to see below historical average growth in [the December quarter] vs. Apple’s historical averages.”
Apple is likely to report December-quarter revenues of around $124.33 billion, a 4% increase from the prior-year period, with iPhone sales rising just 2.1% to $71.2 billion.
“AI has failed to spark an upgrade cycle in the U.S. and internationally (and) we think there is likely a headwind from an iPhone 16 ban in Indonesia,” Nispel and his team wrote. “China data points appear to be a modest negative given continued competition and [the stronger dollar] is likely to be a headwind to guidance.”
Wall Street forecasts for March-quarter iPhone sales, traditionally the tech giant’s weakest three-month period, are pegged at around $48.11 billion.
“iPhone 16 failing to drive meaningful changes to upgrade rates where expectations need to move lower yet again,” Nispel said, while noting that the cheaper iPhone SE is likely to be “cannibalistic to iPhone 16 sales” while iPad/Mac and Wearables growth is likely to remain muted.

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MacDailyNews Take: We’d love to get a chance at the $200 level again! Seems low, but, as usual, it’s all about the iPhone, so we’ll see what Apple presents in its earnings release on Thursday, January 30th just after the closing bell.

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