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Apple poised to beat fiscal Q424 expectations – Morgan Stanley

MacDailyNews

Oct 22

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Apple is anticipated to exceed market expectations for its fourth-quarter earnings, primarily driven by strong sales of the iPhone 15. However, Morgan Stanley predicts that the company’s guidance for the first quarter may fall short of analyst estimates.

MT Newswires:
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Morgan Stanley projects earnings at $1.65 a share on revenue of $96.3 billion, compared with Wall Street’s estimates of EPS at $1.59 a share on revenue of $94.3 billion.
Morgan Stanley boosted its estimate for Q4 iPhone shipments to 55 million units from 52.5 million with the market consensus at 50 million units.
In Q1, Morgan Stanley expects EPS of $2.36 on revenue of $125.3 billion versus the market consensus for EPS of $2.38 on revenue of $127.8 billion.

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MacDailyNews Take: In their note to clients, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, “We have not heard of any iPhone build cuts in our checks, but after a month of tracking iPhone 16 demand indicators, we’d characterize iPhone demand as mixed. Historically, amidst mixed demand, iPhone builds are cut by [3 million] units, on average, in the December quarter, which is exactly what we are embedding in our updated forecast.”

The analysts’ consensus expects Apple to report revenue of $94.38 billion and EPS of $1.55. (For some perspective: That’s over $1 billion per day revenue in the quarter prior to new iPhones being released.) Apple’s all-time record for fiscal Q4 is $90.1 billion, set in fiscal Q222 (Q423 revenue came in at $89.5 billion).

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